Lindsey Cantillo — Broker Summer Coast Realty
President of CRGAR(Costa Rica Global Association of Real Estate) 2026–2028
26 years of experience on the Guanacaste Coast including Tamarindo and Flamingo September 17, 2026
Market Pulse — Guanacaste, Costa Rica Q4 2026
This document summarizes the market context framing the current season: why it has felt slower than usual, which local and global factors are influencing it, and what lies ahead. It is the informational foundation for the first part of the report to our agent team.
This analysis is aimed especially at our property owners and at clients who are not yet in Costa Rica and are looking to buy: property prices have dropped and continue to adjust downward. We know this reality can feel like negative news, but it’s information every owner looking to sell needs in order to make sound decisions. That’s precisely why this is an important moment: well-priced inventory is what sells, especially compared to the rest of what’s on the market. This Part 1 shows why prices need to be rethought in light of current market realities; in Part 2, we’ll cover how to capitalize on this opportunity.
1. Currency context: the strong colón
The colón has strengthened to levels not seen in two decades, squeezing the income of those who earn or depend on dollars (most of our buyers and property owners who rent out their properties).
As of March 6, 2026, the sell exchange rate stood at ¢479.79 per dollar — a levelnot seen since July 2005.
Between June 2022 and May 2026, the average dollar price fell 34%, to ¢454.4;by August 2026 it was hovering around ¢451–453.
Coastal tourism businesses are already postponing investments, raising prices,and freezing hiring because of the uncertainty this creates ahead of high season.
2. Tourism sector
Tourist arrivals are nearing 2019 levels, but August 2026 showed a clear warning sign:the U.S. market — our dominant buyer and visitor base — is weakening.
Between January and August 2026, 2,191,432 tourists arrived (+5.3% vs. 2025),close to the pre-pandemic record of 2019 (2,220,638 in the same span). 2019 remains the absolute record year with 3,139,008 total tourists.
In August, 171,602 tourists entered by air, a 5.89% year-over-year drop — the lowest figure for that month since 2022, and below even August 2019. It is the second consecutive year-over-year decline in August. (Delfino.cr)
The United States explains the drop: 13.9% fewer tourists than in August 2025(14,243 fewer visitors in a single month). That market has gone four consecutive months without growing above 1%: +0.2% in May, -3% in June, +0.4% in July, -13.9% in August.
Canada (+19.4%) and Mexico (+9.8%) did grow in August, but they do not offset the weight of the U.S., which remains the dominant market (57% of total arrivals in 2026).
The ICT itself acknowledged it will monitor “geopolitical conflicts, the economic recession in some of our main source markets, airline business decisions, and the ‘post-World Cup’ effect of postponing trips until year-end.”
Contrast with the start of the year: in the first four months of 2026, air arrivals had grown 10.47%, with Guanacaste Airport leading at +14.9% — showing how sharp the swing has been between the strong start of the year and this weak August, right as the low season (May–October) begins. (Delfino.cr)
The Costa Rican Chamber of Hotels projects just 77% average occupancy for the 2025–2026 year-end/New Year period and warns that the combination of fewer tourists, falling foreign-currency income, and unequal competition threatens hotel sustainability.
Positive note: Guanacaste is leading the coastal price recovery, with median home values that fell from peaks above $900,000 in 2024 to around $533,000 in early 2025 — opening the door to more buyers. In addition, Southwest Airlines will launch a direct Nashville–Liberia route (Feb–Mar 2027), and British Airways confirmed that its London–San José route (Heathrow, formerly Gatwick) will operate year-round starting October 2026 — 5 weekly flights from October 2026 to March 2027 and 3 weekly from April to September 2027 —opening connections to more than 130 global destinations via Heathrow.
3. Drought from El Niño
- The IMN and CNE forecast a probability above 82% that El Niño will intensify in the second half of 2026, with rainfall reductions of up to 50% in Guanacaste and temperature increases of up to 2°C.
- Ranchers are already relocating livestock due to lack of pasture and water; the crisis is also affecting tourism and households, according to La Nación.
- The PAACUME project (“Water for Guanacaste”), intended to ease the situation,will not be ready until 2030.
4. Water availability letters
● Securing water availability for new projects is becoming increasingly difficult on
the Guanacaste coast; some local aqueducts can no longer add new connections.
● One in five availability requests in the Chorotega region was already being denied as of 2022, according to Aresep/AyA.
● “Water is the first requirement for developing any project” — without it, a project cannot even begin the rest of the permitting process. This directly slows the development of new inventory in the area.
5. Construction material prices
● In April 2026, hydraulic cement rose 0.96% and reinforcing steel 2.24% (INEC).
● PVC pipe for potable water rose 7.52% and PVC pipe for wastewater rose 7.27%.
● Globally, logistics and fuel costs are driving an overall 5–6% rise in construction materials, complicating the financial planning of new developments.
6. Slow sales and oversupply
● Heavy new supply entering the market gives buyers room to wait for a price cut rather than compete for a listing.
● Sellers who set unrealistic prices end up unsold for months — a pattern consistent with what we’re seeing in Guanacaste.
● The result: buyers on the sidelines, waiting for prices to drop further before committing.
7. High rental prices
● Cabo Velas/Flamingo/Conchal and Tamarindo are the areas of Costa Rica where the most money is made from Airbnb and Booking rentals.
● Rental inventory on platforms has doubled, from 22,500 to nearly 49,000 between 2019 and 2026, while tourist arrivals actually declined (from 3.14 to 2.94 million in the same period).
● A study by the Tourism Studies Center warns that in destinations with limited housing supply and high tourist demand, short-term rentals drive up land values and residential rents, putting pressure on the tourism sector’s workforce.
8. Global conflicts and wars
● The conflict in the Middle East is costing global tourism close to $600 million a day in international visitor spending, according to the WTTC.
● Nearly a third (29%) of experienced international travelers canceled, postponed, or changed a trip in 2026 due to conflicts and political instability; 72% say geopolitical tensions influence their destination decisions.
● International tourism to the U.S. fell 5.5% in 2025 — relevant because the U.S. is our primary source market.
● The global industry is shifting toward “lower-conflict” destinations in South America and areas away from war routes — an opportunity for Costa Rica to position itself as a safe, natural destination.
9. Trump tariffs and the U.S. economy
● The U.S. raised its tariff on Costa Rica from 10% to 15% in August 2025.
● Deloitte estimates a 7% drop in foreign direct investment into Costa Rica due to this uncertainty. Market Pulse — Guanacaste, Costa Rica Q4 2026 · Page 4Summer Coast Realty
● 58.2% of tourists arriving in Costa Rica are American — the same market that dominates real estate demand in Guanacaste.
● The OECD projects a slowdown in Costa Rica’s growth to 3.5% in 2026 due to the tariffs.
● In the U.S., 30-year mortgage rates remain above 6% and the Fed has not yet cut rates decisively (key meeting September 15–16, 2026) — this affects the purchasing power and financing of American buyers interested in Guanacaste.
Closing: our value remains intact
Despite all the near-term challenges in this report, one thing hasn’t changed: Guanacaste remains one of Costa Rica’s highest-demand markets for tourism and real estate, with solid fundamentals over the medium and long term. What we’re seeing today is a seasonal pause, not a loss of value.
In Part 2 of this report, we will cover:
● The positives that continue to drive our market and that we should keep actively reinforcing.
● How to communicate and present our added value to buyers and investors in this context.
● The concrete actions we’ll take as a team to capitalize on the opportunities this season presents. Guanacaste has not stopped being one of the most sought-after destinations in the country and as a team, we have the experience, local knowledge, and track record to keep leading this market, today and into the next high season.
Sources
● La Nación — Tourist arrivals nearing 2019 levels
● Delfino.cr — Tourist arrivals fell 5.9% in August
● La Nación — British Airways increases flights to Costa Rica from London
● Delfino.cr — Tourist arrivals grew 10.47% in first four months
● Infobae — Dollar exchange rate at levels not seen in two decades
● Voz de Guanacaste — The falling dollar hits tourism
● Tico Times — Guanacaste leads coastal recovery
Market Pulse — Guanacaste, Costa Rica Q4 2026 · Page 5Summer Coast Realty
● Infobae — Forecast drought threatens to raise electricity costs
● La Nación — Guanacaste facing one of its worst droughts
● El Financiero — How water scarcity is redefining Guanacaste’s future
● Infobae — Construction costs rose in April
● La Nación — Costa Rica’s top Airbnb-earning areas
● El Espectador — Connectivity, conflicts, and the 2026 World Cup
● Global Rescue — A third of travelers change plans due to conflicts
● La Nación — Trump tariffs slow Costa Rica’s economy
● SWI swissinfo — Costa Rica to face slowdown from tariffs
● segundoenfoque.com — U.S. interest rates 2026
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